Research
Publications
Peer-reviewed articles and chapters on the politics of age and Japan.
Peer-reviewed articles
- Forthcoming. British Journal of Political Science.Award 2026 State Politics and Policy Quarterly Best Paper Award, APSA State Politics and Policy SectionMedia US News & World Report
Abstract
How does the age composition of democratic institutions shape public evaluations of their legitimacy? While most institutions are dominated by older politicians, we argue that incorporating younger representatives can enhance perceptions of legitimacy. To test this claim, we conduct a survey experiment in the United States that varies the age composition of a bipartisan state legislative committee and its decisions. We find that including younger members increases perceptions of procedural fairness and institutional trust, and improves evaluations of decisions on lower-salience policies. These effects are stronger among young people and Democrats. Evidence on mechanisms suggests these legitimacy gains reflect beliefs that younger politicians are more attuned to young people’s experiences and concerns. Observational evidence from U.S. state legislatures and a replication experiment in the United Kingdom yield consistent patterns, suggesting that these findings extend beyond the original experimental context. This suggests that expanding youth representation can meaningfully strengthen democratic legitimacy.
- 2026. The Journal of Politics.
Abstract
Young people are underrepresented in most political institutions. While studies have investigated the causes behind the shortage of younger politicians, the potential consequences for the substantive representation of young people’s interests in policy outcomes remains under-researched. I argue that younger politicians will be more likely than older politicians to allocate social spending toward child welfare for young families. Using an original dataset of over 12,000 mayoral candidates in Japan (2006–2019) and a regression discontinuity design, supplemented by interviews with 15 mayors, I find that municipalities that elect younger mayors increase spending on child welfare, especially through long-term investments in infrastructure. Mechanism tests and interviews suggest these effects stem from younger mayors’ different life stages and longer time horizons rather than greater electoral incentives to court younger voters. Notably, younger mayors do not cut elderly welfare spending, suggesting youth representation can benefit young families without necessarily exacerbating intergenerational conflict over welfare.
- 2026. Electoral Studies 99:103036.
Abstract
Scholars of electoral reform have long debated the trade-off between accountability and representation in majoritarian versus proportional systems, yet few have examined how voters themselves view this trade-off. We argue that voters who have historically lacked political voice, such as women and young people, are more likely to favor reforms that expand representation, even at some cost to accountability. We test this argument using a conjoint experiment conducted before South Korea's 2020 election—a moment marked by intense public debate over whether the government should implement electoral reforms to enhance representation or accountability. Our findings show that while women and younger voters lean toward more representative rules, they also value accountability and resist certain reforms that would weaken it. This preference for representation is stronger when considering major electoral system changes rather than minor rule adjustments and is especially pronounced among independent or minority supporters compared to major party supporters. These insights have important implications for our understanding of electoral reform, voter preferences, and the political inclusion of underrepresented groups.
- 2026. Japan Forum 1-27.
Abstract
The world faces overlapping crises of global scale and consequence. Given limited attention and capacity, which crises garner attention and framing as important? Which are neglected in ways reflective of broader, systemic concerns that challenge established institutional arrangements? Here, we place gender inequality, a key topic raised by Japanese governmental and non-governmental organizations, in conversation with national level open-response survey data from over 30,000 Japanese participants, collected in March 2020. Using a combination of automated text analysis, manual keyword curation, and discourse analysis, we reveal how expressions of abiding social concern are articulated throughout Japan. We found that the most frequent issue raised was shōshi kōreika (low birth rate, aging population), while phrases related to ‘gender inequality’ were sparse. A subsequent discourse analysis of the open-ended survey responses revealed distress and broader anxiety around gender disparities folded into the phrase shōshi kōreika. We conclude, then, that shōshi kōreika operates as a macro-level ‘idiom of distress,’ a shorthand capturing a dissatisfaction with gender inequality. The significance of this is twofold: (1) it offers insight into how collective concerns are expressed or obscured within dominant narratives of crisis; and (2) it suggests the absence of a national level of concern for gender inequality that is nevertheless complexly embedded in many aspects of daily life.
- 2025. Social Science Japan Journal 28(2).
Abstract
In this article, we consider how efforts by the Japanese government and private sector to make the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) prominent and pervasive reveal obfuscation around issues and concerns purportedly being addressed. We examine three specific components of the SDGs: no poverty, zero hunger, and gender equality. In doing so, we demonstrate a disjuncture between official proclamations endorsing an SDG agenda and ethnographic observations that illustrate the hollowness of these efforts. We argue that the SDGs, a repository of lofty and aspirational goals, many of which are arguably necessary for planetary health and collective well-being, are used by the Japanese government as an instrument of techno-political effect to obscure root causes of persistent societal issues. The result of which nurtures and perhaps sustains insufficient social, political, and structural changes throughout Japan.
- 2024. Political Behavior 46(4):2333-2355.
Abstract
Why do elected officials tend to be much older than most of their constituents? To understand the mechanisms behind the underrepresentation of young people in public office, we conducted two novel survey experiments in Japan. We asked voters in these experiments to evaluate the photos of hypothetical candidates while altering candidates’ faces using age regression and progression software. Contrary to the observed age demographics of politicians, the voters in our experiments strongly disliked older candidates but viewed younger and middle-aged candidates as equally favorable. Voters saw young candidates as less experienced but also more likely to focus on many policy issues over a longer period, including education, childcare, climate change, anti-corruption measures, and multiculturalism. Young voters especially liked young candidates, suggesting that greater youth turnout could increase youth representation. Conversely, elderly candidates were universally panned, seen as the least competent, least likely to focus on most policy issues, and least electable. Voter biases thus do not seem to be a driving factor behind the shortage of young politicians. To the contrary, voters appear perfectly willing to cast their ballots for young candidates.
- 2024. British Journal of Political Science 54(2):526-535.Media Business Standard
Abstract
Members of some legislatures enjoy long political careers, whereas elsewhere turnover is rampant. This variation is consequential since high-incumbency assemblies may facilitate legislative expertise at the expense of social representation. We explore cross-national differences in re-election (incumbency) rates by identifying ‘supply’ conditions such as legislative resources that benefit incumbents as well as ‘demand’ conditions such as political corruption that affect voters' willingness to re-elect incumbents. We hypothesize that legislative perquisites help incumbents win re-election, but only if there is relatively high public confidence in politics, as reflected in low corruption levels. We tested our argument using OLS and instrumental variable regression and new global data on sixty-eight democracies (2000–18) covering 288 elections and over 55,000 legislators. We found that legislative resources help incumbents get re-elected only under relatively low levels of political corruption. In contrast, under severe corruption, such resources can depress re-election rates.
- 2023. PS: Political Science & Politics 56(1):99-105.
Abstract
How can scholars conduct field research when there is limited access to the field? This article first identifies how limited and uncertain field access can affect field research and then provides recommendations to address these challenges. We focus on conducting field research in Japan because of our substantive expertise, but we believe that the problems and solutions outlined in this article are applicable to a broad range of countries. Our hope is that this article contributes to the developing literature on conducting research during times of emergency and to the larger literature on best practices for field research.
- 2022. Comparative Political Studies 55(6):992-1020.Media The Washington Post
Abstract
Do ministers face gender discrimination in their career paths after entering presidential cabinets? Departing from past studies, which find little evidence of gender discrimination in more established democracies in Europe and the Americas, we argue that political experience can have a gendered effect on cabinet careers in newer democracies outside the West. Using fixed effects and matching designs, we analyze original data on the careers of 1,374 ministers from all major presidential democracies in Asia. Investigating the patterns of “cabinet promotions,” where ministers transfer from their initial cabinet appointment to a higher-prestige post, we confirm the null direct effect of gender in this new context. However, we also find important gender differences based on political experience, which helps women’s upward mobility in cabinets more than men. The finding that pathways to higher office differ by gender adds to our understanding of women’s representation in society.
- 2021. Nature Medicine 27(12):2111-2119.Media Asahi Shimbun, Asahi Shimbun (2), Asahi Shimbun (3), Asahi Shimbun (4), Mainichi Weekly Economist, Nature Japan, Nature Medicine, Nature Portfolio, Nikkei Business, Nikkei Business (2), Nikkei Shimbun, Nippon TV News 24, The Telegraph, The Washington Post, The World Bank
Abstract
Among tool kits to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, school closures are one of the most frequent non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, school closures bring about substantial costs, such as learning loss. To date, studies have not reached a consensus about the effectiveness of these policies at mitigating community transmission, partly because they lack rigorous causal inference. Here we assess the causal effect of school closures in Japan on reducing the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020. By matching each municipality with open schools to a municipality with closed schools that is the most similar in terms of potential confounders, we can estimate how many cases the municipality with open schools would have had if it had closed its schools. We do not find any evidence that school closures in Japan reduced the spread of COVID-19. Our null results suggest that policies on school closures should be reexamined given the potential negative consequences for children and parents.
- 2021. Comparative Political Studies 54(11):1984-2018.Media Asahi Shimbun
Abstract
How can incumbent governments benefit when they control the timing of elections? The conventional wisdom is that incumbents gain an advantage by timing elections to coincide with favorable economic conditions. An alternative mechanism that has received less attention is the element of surprise: the incumbent’s ability to exploit the opposition’s lack of election preparedness. I theorize and empirically test this surprise mechanism using candidate-level data from Japanese House of Representatives elections (1955–2017). The results show that in surprise elections, opposition parties recruit fewer, lower-quality candidates, spend less money campaigning, coordinate their candidates less effectively, and ultimately receive fewer votes and seats. Evidence from fixed effects models and exogenously timed by-elections further suggest that surprise matters more in shorter, competitive election campaigns and helps incumbents more with confronting inter-party as opposed to intra-party electoral competition. These findings add to our understanding of how strategic election timing can undermine electoral accountability.
- 2020. Political Psychology 41(1):165-187.Media PsyPost
Abstract
Most Americans are sorted into social networks that are largely politically homogeneous. A large body of political science research has explored the behavioral implications of being embedded in a politically homogeneous or heterogeneous network, but substantially less attention has been given to explaining why some people find themselves in politically homogeneous or heterogeneous social networks. In this article, we explore the psychological and physiological underpinnings of political network homogeneity. We use social network data from an original survey of 129 undergraduates paired with lab experimental evidence that measures individuals' physiological reactivity to an anticipated political discussion. Using our original survey and a separate nationally representative survey, we find suggestive evidence that individuals who are more socially anxious are more likely to share partisanship with their social network ties. Moreover, we find that individuals who experienced a greater increase in heart rate when anticipating a political discussion were more likely to be in homogeneous discussion networks, but we do not find a relationship between electrodermal activity and network homogeneity. Aversion to psychological and physiological discomfort induced by political discussions could contribute to social polarization in the American public.
Chapters in edited volumes
- 2024. In Patrick Dumont, Bernard Grofman, Torbjörn Bergman, and Tom Louwerse, eds. New Developments in the Study of Coalition Governments. Springer.
- 2023. In Robert Pekkanen, Steven Reed, and Daniel Smith, eds. Japan Decides 2021: The Japanese General Election 115-129. Palgrave Macmillan.
- 2022. In Joo-Cheong Tham, Andrea Carson, Adhy Aman, and Amy Chinnappa, eds. Digital Campaigning and Political Finance in the Asia and the Pacific Region: A New Age for an Old Problem 72-78. International IDEA.
- 2016. In Salvatore Vasallo, ed. Comparative Political Systems 363-384. il Mulino.
Selected works in progress
- Assembly Size, Electoral Accountability, and Descriptive Representation
- Voter Preferences for Young and Female Candidates: Comparing Conjoint Experiments with Real-World Behaviorwith Yuki Shiraito
- Population Aging and Defensive Representationwith Michael Strausz
- The Limits of Regression Discontinuity Designs: Lottery Elections and the Incumbency Advantagewith Kentaro Fukumoto
- A Market for Taxes: Decentralization and Uncertaintywith Anna Yorozuya
Book review
- 2023. Asia Policy 18(2):166-168.