In our latest article for Pacific Forum, Sheila Smith and I discuss Japan’s snap election and Ishiba’s minority government; Trump’s return and its impact on US Indo-Pacific policy; and the expanding US-Japan regional and global agenda.
Minority Governments Revisited
Kaare Strøm (UCSD) and I have a new book chapter out on Minority Governments Revisited! The chapter is part of Patrick Dumont, Bernard Grofman, Torbjörn Bergman, and Tom Louwerse, eds. New Developments in the Study of Coalition Governments. Studies in Public Choice, vol 9. Springer, Cham.
Abstract
Despite decades of scholarship on coalition bargaining in parliamentary democracies, minority governments remain a puzzle. From the 1970s on, cross-national empirical scholarship has shown minority governments to be surprisingly common across parliamentary democracies. Even though scholarship that sought to explain identify the conditions that favored the formation minority governments developed, our knowledge still remains somewhat parochial. In this chapter we ask whether our existing understanding of minority governments can be generalized to more recent decades and to recent democracies of Central and Eastern Europe. We review existing explanations of the incidence and performance of minority governments and ask whether they still apply in this broader context. We find that minority governments tend to form under disproportional bargaining power, a larger number of parties in parliament, when the vote of investiture is not required, and when even opposition parties can expect to have policy impact. Next, we inspect the governance mechanisms that permit minority governments to retain power. Finally, our analysis of their performance shows that although less durable than other cabinet types, minority governments are remarkably successful at the polls. This comprehensive analysis and our robust findings across regions and periods contribute to the “normalization” of minority governments.
Fletcher School: What's Next for Asia?
I was delighted to speak on a panel with Aram Hur for the newly launched Fletcher Asia Forum’s first event at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. We shared insights from our research and discussed long-standing issues in East Asia that shape its democratic and diplomatic future with the United States.
Louisville Center for Asian Democracy: Inside Asia Podcast
I had a great time joining David Buckley’s Inside Asia podcast at the University of Louisville’s Center for Asian Democracy to discuss the LDP's recent election performance—and what the results reveal about youth participation and representation in Japan's rapidly aging society. We also chatted about snap elections!
Tufts: Department of Political Science
I returned to my alma mater, Tufts University, to talk about my book project. It was great to reconnect and discuss how youth representation can shape public policy and democracy.
Harvard: Program on U.S.-Japan Relations
I visited Harvard University’s Program on U.S.-Japan Relations to discuss my book project on youth representation and its impact on policymaking and democracy—just a day after Japan's election!
Yale Young Global Scholars
Today, I enjoyed giving a talk about youth representation for a great group of 150 high school students from 50+ countries, who are here participating in the Yale Young Global Scholars program. It was particularly nice to hear their thoughts about ways we can encourage more young people to run for office.
Assistant Professor of Political Science, Yale University
Today is my first day as an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Yale University. This month also marks the 20-year anniversary since I first visited Japan and started studying the country. Here’s a photo from that first trip vs. today.
Economist: Japan's Youngest Ever Mayor
"Japan’s political system is not set up to reward the young." I shared insights from my research with The Economist for their story on Takashima Ryosuke, Japan's youngest ever mayor, elected at 26.
Capitol Hill: Mansfield U.S.-Japan Network for the Future
I visited Capitol Hill to discuss gerontocracy and youth representation as part of a Mansfield Foundation U.S.-Japan Network for the Future event.
Business Standard: Incumbency in Indian Elections
I spoke with Ashli Varghese at Business Standard about why incumbency rates tend to be lower in Indian elections compared to other democracies. The article features my 68-country study with Shane Martin and Kaare Strøm.
NCCU: Summer School on Political Parties and Democracy
I discussed my book project with a group of MA/PhD researchers participating in the 4th Asian Summer School on Political Parties and Democracy at National Chengchi University (NCCU) in Taipei.
WSJ: Why the World's Leaders Are Getting Older
For this video for The Wall Street Journal, I joined Jon Emont to discuss why the world's leaders are getting older—and what it means for policies and political engagement.
NYU: Frontiers in Empirical Research on East Asia
At this NYU conference, I presented new work (with Yuki Shiraito) on “Voter Preferences for Young and Female Candidates: Comparing Conjoint Experiments with Real-World Behavior.”
Washington Welcomes Prime Minister Kishida
In our latest article for Comparative Connections, Sheila Smith and I dive into the busy start of 2024 for US-Japan relations—from regional responses to Taiwan's election in January to the US-Japan and US-Japan-Philippines summits in April.
Asahi: Why Are There So Many Older Politicians?
Today’s Asahi Shimbun feature a story about my Political Behavior article with Yoshikuni Ono.
Georgetown: The US-Japan Partnership in the 21st Century
I spoke about challenges for democracy in the US and Japan at this Georgetown conference.
Princeton: Global Japan Lab
I visited Princeton’s Global Japan Lab to give a talk about my research and the job market for social scientists working on Japan.
Yale and the World
In this interview with Yale’s Office of International Affairs, I discuss my research and teaching, as well as resources available to Yale students interested in Japan.
Too Young to Run? Voter Evaluations of the Age of Candidates
Yoshikuni Ono (Waseda University) and I have a new article out in Political Behavior!
Abstract
Why do elected officials tend to be much older than most of their constituents? To understand the mechanisms behind the underrepresentation of young people in public office, we conducted two novel survey experiments in Japan. We asked voters in these experiments to evaluate the photos of hypothetical candidates while altering candidates’ faces using age regression and progression software. Contrary to the observed age demographics of politicians, the voters in our experiments strongly disliked older candidates but viewed younger and middle-aged candidates as equally favorable. Voters saw young candidates as less experienced but also more likely to focus on many policy issues over a longer period, including education, childcare, climate change, anti-corruption measures, and multiculturalism. Young voters especially liked young candidates, suggesting that greater youth turnout could increase youth representation. Conversely, elderly candidates were universally panned, seen as the least competent, least likely to focus on most policy issues, and least electable. Voter biases thus do not seem to be a driving factor behind the shortage of young politicians. To the contrary, voters appear perfectly willing to cast their ballots for young candidates.