Silver Democracy: Youth Representation in an Aging Japan
Why are young people underrepresented in many political institutions, and how does this shape policy outcomes? These questions are especially urgent in aging democracies such as Japan, where politicians must balance rising welfare costs with the needs of younger working families. Without greater youth representation in public office, policies risk disproportionately favoring older generations, exacerbating generational inequities and eroding trust in political institutions.
Causes of Youth Underrepresentation
A common assumption is that aging electorates lead to aging politicians, but my research challenges this view. Using an original dataset of over 200,000 municipal candidates across more than 20,000 elections (1999–2024), I show that youth underrepresentation is primarily driven by institutional barriers rather than voter preferences. These barriers include higher minimum age requirements and candidate-centered electoral systems, which disproportionately disadvantage younger candidates by emphasizing personal wealth, experience, and name recognition—factors that individuals tend to accumulate with age.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, voters do not strongly prefer older politicians. In a survey experiment where I manipulate candidate ages using age regression and progression software, I find that both young and older voters prefer younger candidates. These findings suggest that silver democracy is not destiny: if institutional barriers are reformed and young people are encouraged to run, voters may welcome their greater presence in public office.
Consequences of Youth Representation
Does electing young politicians matter? I argue that age shapes elite behavior in ways that have direct policy consequences. Younger politicians, particularly those raising children, are not only more attuned to the immediate needs of young families but also more likely to advocate for long-term investments in child welfare and demographic sustainability. Their life stage gives them firsthand exposure to the challenges facing younger generations, while their longer time horizons increase their willingness to support policies that address declining birth rates and population aging—issues that may be easier for older politicians to defer.
Using supervised text analysis of 500,000 campaign tweets, I find that younger candidates are far more likely to emphasize child welfare and demographic challenges. Building on this, evidence from a close-election regression discontinuity design shows that young mayors significantly increase child welfare spending—particularly through expanding daycare infrastructure—without cutting elderly welfare. These findings suggest that greater youth representation does not necessarily exacerbate intergenerational conflict but rather leads to greater investment in future generations.
Contributions and Broader Implications
My book is among the first to demonstrate that the descriptive representation of young politicians leads to substantive policy change. While prior research on elite characteristics has focused on redistribution between social groups, my work highlights age as a distinct political identity that influences policy not just across groups, but across time.
These findings also contribute to debates on welfare regimes and electoral systems. Even under the same institutional and welfare policy frameworks, the age of politicians can significantly shape spending priorities. As aging societies confront declining birth rates, the extent to which young people are represented in political institutions will have far-reaching consequences for intergenerational equity and democratic legitimacy.
Media Coverage
Recently, I have discussed insights from my book project in stories in the Asahi Shimbun, The Economist, National Public Radio [2], and The Wall Street Journal [2].